Dan Gilbert  is discussing the way we are making decisions during our everyday life. He starts his presentation with quoting Bernoulli who tried to clarify the method of making a good choice. “The expected value of any of our actions is the product of two simple things: the odds that this action will allow us to gain something, and the value of that gain to us.”  The only problem with this quote is the failure to acknowledge the error we are making in estimating the odds or values.

I’ve done extremely large amount of bad decisions in my life, especially when my ‘error’ was influenced by language, a really complex way of knowing things. We had a refugee crisis back in my country and we heard how immigrants are dangerous, because they are aggressive, usually steals and rape and terrorists are coming with them – ‘ a part of their group’. Of course,  I didn’t believe, but the amount of hatred I saw, convinced me to be careful. There is a huge train station close to me and many immigrants were staying there for a couple of weeks. Because of inductive reasoning, I avoided the station as much as I could, until they were gone. There weren’t any bombing or death that they brought with them and I felt ashamed to avoid them that much, while there is a chance I could help them somehow and also make my life faster with using the transportation there. However, my premises were false, therefore my conclusion couldn’t be true and this lead to a bad decision.